Beware of Thucydides Trap and Avoid the Tragedy of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia's Conflict — A Brief Analysis of the Reasons for the Changes in the Diplomatic Situation Between China and Yugoslavia before the Establishment of the Socialist System in New China

Abstract

In modern and contemporary history, Yugoslavia once confirmed the existence of the "Thucydides Trap", and had disagreements and conflicts with the socialist camp led by the Soviet Union. Therefore, Yugoslavia's international status witnessed fluctuations several times. Taking this as a juncture, China, as a country that spared no efforts to avoid the "Thucydides Trap" and followed the path of peaceful development, was also inevitably affected. China had witnessed many twists and turns in diplomatic relations with Yugoslavia. With the rise and fall of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia's Conflict, China made corresponding adjustment in its diplomatic thought and practice. Against the backdrop of the current international arena, some people believe that China's rapid rise will inevitably lead to conflicts with the old hegemons such as the United States and Japan. However, as a matter of fact, there is no such thing as a "Thucydides Trap" in the world. However, continuous strategic miscalculation among major countries may create a "Thucydides Trap" for themselves. This paper aims to analyze the reasons for the changes in the diplomatic situation between the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and between China and Yugoslavia before the establishment of the socialist system of New China through the case study method, and expounds the great significance of vigilance against "Thucydides Trap" for today's peaceful development world.