Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

FOR MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY, THE UNITED STATES has played a leading role in shaping order in East Asia. This East Asian order has been organized around American military and economic dominance, anchored in the U.S. system of alliances with Japan, South Korea, and other partners across Asia. Over the decades, the United States found itself playing a hegemonic role in the region—providing security, underwriting stability, promoting open markets, and fostering alliance and political partnerships. It was an order organized around “hard” bilateral security ties and “soft” multilateral groupings. It was built around security, economic, and political bargains. The United States exported security and imported goods. Across the region, countries expanded trade, pursued democratic transitions, and maintained a more or less stable peace. Today, this regional order is giving way to something new. Within Asia, a regional power transition is taking place, driven by the rise of China. In earlier decades, China existed for the most part outside the “old order.” With rapid growth and transforming patterns of regional trade, China is now very much within it. The regional power transition can be seen as a double shift. The region is becoming increasingly interconnected through trade, investment, and multilateral agreements. And, under the shadow of the rise of Chinese economic and military capabilities, the region is taking