Between Integration and Confrontation: To the Prospects of a New Power Distribution in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the issues of economic and political integration of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in the context of a power balance shift in East Asia. Owing to a violent (military) way of resolving country's contradiction, used in the past, is not acceptable in the modern world. So, now, major actors of international relations choose a strategy of integration from the perspective of their national interests (i.e. on favorable terms) instead of a confrontation strategy. When China rise and successfully handles the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and actively makes ＂the Belt and Road Initiative＂ come true, now, looks around Asia, most countries in Asia such as ASEAN still incline to choose to deepen economic relations with China at present, for example ＂ASEAN Framework for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP),＂ it makes China will continue to operate regional integration in Asia to increase their influence. China will be able to transform its economic power into military might. That is, economic integration will has spillover effects on politics or security. China, as the most rapidly developing economy and one of the most active political actors of the region, is in the focus of the paper. In this report, it is proposed to analyze the policy of the three leading actors, that's American, China and Russia in terms of their approach to the integration processes in Asia-Pacific region, in particular, the impact of China's rise and Russia - China relations, China-US relations and their prospects in the nearest future on changing the power balance. Thus, this article will apply two theories, theory of balance of power and integration theory, sums to assess changes in Asia-Pacific power. China-US relations are analyzed from the perspective of their possible strategic rivalry. China-Russia relations are overviewed against the background of Russia's ＂turn to the East＂. So, we can find that, integration, especially economic integration in APR, may be a strategic tool for internal and external balancing. America and Russia, especially America, will necessary to seek cooperation partners for shifting balance of power in East Asia, owing to China-US strategic rivalry and China-Russia strategic partnership. Most second-tier Asia-Pacific countries, like Taiwan, Vietnam, India and etc., have to maneuver between the United States and China. The prospects for regional integration of the APR look unclear against the backdrop of this confrontation of world powers.