Between Biodiversity Conservation and the Supply for Broadleaved Wood: A Case Study of State Forests National Forest Holding (Poland)

Abstract

Climate change is an important issue that increasingly affects our lives. One of the proposals for mitigating climate change is fighting biodiversity loss, which can support climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In Poland, the possibility of excluding large tracts of forest areas from use is being considered. The discussed the exclusion of forest land from use will affect the timber supply and market, especially for broadleaved wood. The main purpose of this analysis is to present a timber supply forecast, with a particular focus on the possibility of obtaining broadleaved hardwood timber in Poland from forests managed by State Forests National Forest Holding under three scenarios that assume different criteria for selecting forest areas for protection. The work was divided into two main phases: (1) the analysis of historical sales volume of wood products and average sale prices of hardwood during the period 2011–2020; (2) the preparation of a forecast of the potential possibility of maintaining broadleaved hardwood production in the three decades between 2020 and 2049. In the forecast, it was assumed that about 2.7 million hectares of planted and production forests are excluded from use in order to implement the provisions of the 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. In Scenario “I”, the supply of merchantable broadleaved roundwood volume will be reduced to 14%–18% that of Scenario “0”. In Scenario “II”, 55% of the “0” scenario is harvested, and in Scenario “III”, 33%–37% of the “0” scenario merchantable broadleaved roundwood is harvested. The introduction of restrictions on timber harvesting as a result of Poland’s compliance with European Union requirements in the area of environmental protection will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of timber on the market. This may lead to a further increase in timber prices and an increase in the importance of large timber buyers at the expense of local buyers. The recommendations contained in the policy objectives that the EU sets for the states should be supported by a thorough analysis when selecting areas for strict protection.