Abstract
Climate change is an important issue that increasingly affects our lives. One of the proposals for mitigating climate change is fighting biodiversity loss, which can support climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In Poland, the possibility of excluding large tracts of forest areas from use is being considered. The discussed the exclusion of forest land from use will affect the timber supply and market, especially for broadleaved wood. The main purpose of this analysis is to present a timber supply forecast, with a particular focus on the possibility of obtaining broadleaved hardwood timber in Poland from forests managed by State Forests National Forest Holding under three scenarios that assume different criteria for selecting forest areas for protection. The work was divided into two main phases: (1) the analysis of historical sales volume of wood products and average sale prices of hardwood during the period 2011–2020; (2) the preparation of a forecast of the potential possibility of maintaining broadleaved hardwood production in the three decades between 2020 and 2049. In the forecast, it was assumed that about 2.7 million hectares of planted and production forests are excluded from use in order to implement the provisions of the 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. In Scenario “I”, the supply of merchantable broadleaved roundwood volume will be reduced to 14%–18% that of Scenario “0”. In Scenario “II”, 55% of the “0” scenario is harvested, and in Scenario “III”, 33%–37% of the “0” scenario merchantable broadleaved roundwood is harvested. The introduction of restrictions on timber harvesting as a result of Poland’s compliance with European Union requirements in the area of environmental protection will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of timber on the market. This may lead to a further increase in timber prices and an increase in the importance of large timber buyers at the expense of local buyers. The recommendations contained in the policy objectives that the EU sets for the states should be supported by a thorough analysis when selecting areas for strict protection.
Highlights
Key climate threats include the risk of environmental degradation, the loss of biodiversity, and ecosystem services and benefits provided by forests
The aim of this study is to assess the possible effects of the implementation of the European Commission’s proposals for the European Union (EU) biodiversity protection strategy for forests and forest management in the context of the availability of broadleaf wood on the Polish market. This objective is achieved by analysis presenting a forecast of the timber supply, with a particular focus on timber from broadleaved tree species in Poland from forests managed by State Forests National Forest Holding (SF NFH) under three scenarios that assume that about 2.7 million hectares of planted and production forests are excluded from use in order to implement the provisions of the Biodiversity Strategy [1]
The second part of the analysis used historical data to estimate the impact of achieving the EU Biodiversity Strategy target in SF NFH managed forests and the opportunity to harvest hardwood
Summary
Human activities can influence the rate and magnitude of temperature rise. Key climate threats include the risk of environmental degradation, the loss of biodiversity, and ecosystem services and benefits provided by forests. Climate change affects forest ecosystems in many ways. The exacerbation of natural disasters (fires, floods, heat, and hurricanes) associated with climate change compels us to look for ways to mitigate them
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