Abstract
Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policy-makers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.
Highlights
Uncertainties have always existed in policy-making; what has changed more recently, is the way we view uncertainties
The most pressing uncertainty at the moment is climate change: most scientists agree that the climate will be changing with effects on sea levels, precipitation patterns and storm frequency; predictions are still uncertain, in particular for the regional and the local level (Cooney 2012; Jeuken and Reeder 2011)
We examined the guideline for implementing Adaptive Delta Management (ADM) and yearly progress reports from the national Delta Programme as well as the regional sub-programme
Summary
Uncertainties have always existed in policy-making (see for example Friend and Jessop 1969); what has changed more recently, is the way we view uncertainties. Policy-making should concentrate on short-term emergency responses to alleviate suffering after a flood event as is often the case today (Fünfgeld and Mcevoy 2012), but instead proactively build adaptive capacity (Davoudi 2012) This requires a new type of strategic policy and decision-making: while a long-term perspective is needed to enable a transformation, acknowledging uncertainties requires room for adjustment along the way; there is a need for ‘adaptive’ water policies. E. Walker, Haasnoot, and Kwakkel 2013; Reeder and Ranger 2011), we argue that three points are crucial for making long-term water policies more adaptive; namely, 1) an agile governance process, 2) make flexible strategies and plans and 3) prioritise measures that prevent lock-ins. Keeping this plan flexible is necessary to deal with uncertainties
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