Beta-human chorionic gonadotropin levels as early predictor for progression to Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia after molar pregnancy evacuation at a Philippine tertiary hospital

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine if the beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels during the first 5 weeks after a molar evacuation predict progression to gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of complete mole cases managed at a Philippine tertiary hospital from January 2009 to December 2018. Extracted data were analyzed using applicable statistical tools. The level of significance was set at a P < 0.05 using two-tailed comparisons. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-five complete patient records were available for review. Disease progression in 15.48% of cases while regression in 84.52% were noted. Uterine size was larger in those who eventually had postmolar GTN (t: −3.12, df: 32.64, P: 0.01). Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that optimum cut-off levels for predicting GTN at 1, 3, and 5 weeks after evacuation were 4,152 mIU/ml (sensitivity: 50%, specificity: 94.7%, area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75), 804 mIU/ml (sensitivity: 62.5, specificity: 96.9%, AUC: 0.94), and 541 mIU/ml (70.8%, specificity: 97.7%, AUC: 0.96), respectively. CONCLUSION: The level of hCG within the first 5 weeks after molar pregnancy evacuation is predictive of progression to GTN.