Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations: Issues and Challenges Towards Full Seismic Risk Analysis

Abstract

In recent years the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been closely following and supporting the use of physics-based rupture models for ground motion prediction (e.g. IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG–9 and Safety Report Series No. 85) as well as for fault displacement prediction (IAEA-TECDOC, in preparation), respectively for applications in Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (FDHA) for nuclear installations. Further strengthening of this effort and dissemination in practices for SHA, FDHA and engineering issues have been done through different international working group activities, being the most outstanding two international workshops on Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) in 2015 and 2018. A PAGEOPH topical volume for the BestPSHANI 2015 was published in Dalguer et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:3325–3329, 2017). Now, in this PAGEOPH topical volume we collect several articles from the BestPSHANI 2018 workshop as well as several new contributions. The issue also covers further topics on the assessments of engineering issues that rely on ground motion estimates for the evaluation of structures oriented to full seismic risk analysis. A total of twenty-nine papers have been selected covering topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake source studies, ground motion and fault displacement modeling to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of soil structure interaction, structural response and fragility curve analysis for the quantification of seismic vulnerability of structures and their seismic performance. Collectively, the seismological papers discuss several current issues of source characterization and ground motion prediction for SHA, highlighting the usefulness of physics-based models for future applications in practice. The engineering papers describe methodologies to develop integral models from source-to-structures that consider the developments of synthetic seismograms as input for structural response and fragility curves estimation for seismic vulnerability assessment. Therefore, this issue contents advanced seismological and engineering resources that might be useful to scientists, engineers, students and practitioners involved in all aspects of SHA, FDHA and vulnerability analysis of engineering structures for seismic risk.