Best Practices and Methods in Hydrocarbon Resource Estimation, Production and Emissions Forecasting, Uncertainty Evaluation, and Decision Making

Abstract

Summary On behalf of a group of sponsors consisting of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and most E&P companies active in Norway, a work group was established to author a report on the best practices and methods in hydrocarbon resource estimation, production and emissions forecasting, uncertainty evaluation, and decision making. The work group is part of Norway's forum for Forecasting and Uncertainty evaluatioN (FUN). Following a detailed data acquisition and interviewing phase used to establish an inventory of the current practice of all sponsors involved, the work group postulated a relationship between a company's practices and its economic performance. A key distinguishing factor between companies is the degree to which probabilistic methods are adopted in integrated multidisciplinary processes aimed at supporting the decision-making process throughout the asset life cycle and portfolio of assets. Companies have been ranked in terms of this degree of integration, and best practices are recommended. In many companies, a gap seems to exist between available and applied technology. Data and (aggregated) information exchange between governments and companies is also discussed. A best practice based on their respective decision-making processes is recommended.