Benefits of short-term photovoltaic power production forecasting to the power system

Abstract

The impact of intermittent power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the overall power system operation is constantly increasing and so is the need for advanced forecasting tools that enable understanding, prediction, and managing of such a power production. Solar power production forecasting is one of the enabling technologies, which can accelerate the transition to sustainable energy environment. Short-term forecast information on the expected power production can assist existing forecasting techniques and enable efficient integration of renewable energy sources through the efficient energy trading, power system control and management of energy storage units. The paper presents an approach to predict local PV power output based on short-term solar forecasting using ground-based camera and analyzes the benefits of such forecast to the power system operation. PV power plant production data collected over 216 days is used to analyze the magnitude and energy contained in transients caused by changes in sky cover. Cost-effectiveness was calculated with different scales of a power plant. An overview of the benefits for the transmission system operator is given. This overview considers the ways in which short-term forecasting can improve the efficiency of power management in an electric grid. A system cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out for electricity producers that can use this system to generate more precise forecasts and thus reduce penalties for non-compliance with the anticipated production.