Abstract
Autonomous vehicles are currently developed, and are expected to be introduced gradually. Society needs a basis for decisions regarding market interventions. This study identifies, quantifies and values the benefits and costs of autonomous trucks and cars considering generalized costs, external effects and social marginal cost pricing to consumers with Swedish data. The results show that the greatest benefits are saved driver costs for trucks and decreased travel time costs for car drivers. In the example calculations, capital costs may increase by 22 percent for cars and 36 percent for trucks for benefits to exceed costs in 2025. Subsidies are not needed since the producers and consumers get the major benefits and pay the costs.
Highlights
The vehicle industry is developing new technologies for trucks and cars to be autonomous, referred to as automated or self-driving vehicles that are expected to be introduced gradually and gain market shares
The results show that the greatest benefits are saved driver costs for trucks and decreased travel time costs for car drivers
The purpose of the study is to estimate the relative importance of identified effects of autonomous trucks and cars, the distribution of effects, and whether benefits are greater than costs, by using theory, previous studies and the unit values for transportation costs applied in Sweden
Summary
The vehicle industry is developing new technologies for trucks and cars to be autonomous, referred to as automated or self-driving vehicles that are expected to be introduced gradually and gain market shares. When commercial success is up to the manufacturers, the benefits and costs to society as a whole are crucial for the technology’s success and for the implementation of the right policies and public investments. Questions include whether policies should be proactive, promote development with rapid adjustment of regulations, and give subsidies if the technology has net benefits to society, or whether institutions should evolve gradually in response to innovation within the industry. The applied methodology is common for evaluating infrastructure investments; in this study it is applied to the introduction of a new technology for transportation. We use today’s knowledge to quantify the magnitude of benefits and costs related to AVs
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