Benefit-Cost Analysis of Radiocesium Decorporation by a Prussian Blue Treatment and Stockpiling.

Abstract

In the case of an attack by a "dirty bomb" with cesium-137 there is a risk of internal contamination. The excretion of cesium-137 can be enhanced by Prussian Blue (PB), and thus the committed effective dose be reduced. We analyzed the benefit and costs of PB decorporation treatment. We simulated the reduction of the radiological dose by PB treatment after cesium-137 incorporation by inhalation. The saving of life time was quantified using the monetary "value of a statistical life" (VSL). Treatment costs were based on the market price of PB in Germany. Moreover we considered the holding costs of stockpiling. The benefit of PB treatment increases with its duration up to about 90 days. If treatment initiation is delayed, the maximum achievable benefit is decreased. For a VSL of 1.646 million €, the net benefit of a 90-days treatment started 1 day after the incorporation remains positive up to a stockpiling duration of 10 years. If starting PB treatment as late as the 180th day after incorporation, the costs will surpass the benefit. We conclude that a prompt decision making and early treatment initiation greatly impacts on the medical but also economic efficiency of a PB treatment.