Abstract
Society faces the double challenge of increasing biomass production to meet the future demands for food, materials and bioenergy, while addressing negative impacts of current (and future) land use. In the discourse, land use change (LUC) has often been considered as negative, referring to impacts of deforestation and expansion of biomass plantations. However, strategic establishment of suitable perennial production systems in agricultural landscapes can mitigate environmental impacts of current crop production, while providing biomass for the bioeconomy. Here, we explore the potential for such “beneficial LUC” in EU28. First, we map and quantify the degree of accumulated soil organic carbon losses, soil loss by wind and water erosion, nitrogen emissions to water, and recurring floods, in ∼81.000 individual landscapes in EU28. We then estimate the effectiveness in mitigating these impacts through establishment of perennial plants, in each landscape. The results indicate that there is a substantial potential for effective impact mitigation. Depending on criteria selection, 10–46% of the land used for annual crop production in EU28 is located in landscapes that could be considered priority areas for beneficial LUC. These areas are scattered all over Europe, but there are notable “hot-spots” where priority areas are concentrated, e.g., large parts of Denmark, western UK, The Po valley in Italy, and the Danube basin. While some policy developments support beneficial LUC, implementation could benefit from attempts to realize synergies between different Sustainable Development Goals, e.g., “Zero hunger”, “Clean water and sanitation”, “Affordable and Clean Energy”, “Climate Action”, and “Life on Land”.
Highlights
The exploitation of fossil fuels has been a powerful driver of global societal development in the twentieth century, resulting in a reduced relative dependency on biomass
We identify and quantify: (1) The degree of selected environmental impacts associated with agriculture (soil loss by wind and water erosion, nitrogen emissions to water, accumulated loss of soil organic carbon (SOC), and recurring floods) in ∼81 000 individual landscapes in EU28
The same can be seen for soil loss by water erosion which can be high in mountainous areas or on land with steep slopes, regardless of the land use
Summary
The exploitation of fossil fuels has been a powerful driver of global societal development in the twentieth century, resulting in a reduced relative dependency on biomass. The food sector has undergone large changes; while most of our food still comes from agriculture, it is often produced in an intensive manner, relying on fossil fuels and petroleum-based chemicals This development, especially the invention of synthetic fertilizers, has limited the need for expanding agricultural land, while the global population, and its affluence, has steadily increased. As a growing and wealthier global population requires more food, paper, construction wood, and other biomaterials, the demand for land and biomass is expected to increase (Scarlat et al, 2015) This is further accelerated by societal concerns about resource scarcity and impacts associated with the use of non-renewable resources — not the least climate change (Scarlat et al, 2015). Bioenergy is expected to play a major role in the substitution of fossil energy necessary to meet
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