Abstract
We investigate the incremental information conveyed by management forecast errors over and above the consensus analyst forecast error at the time of earnings announcement. To the extent that analysts rationally revise their forecasts to subsume information contained in management releases, it is reasonable to argue that management forecasts are dated and that the revised analyst forecasts would constitute the more timely benchmark to evaluate performance. We find that when management guidance appears to be unsuccessful, management forecast errors convey information to the stock market that is not reflected in the consensus analyst forecast error. In contrast, we do not find that management forecast errors convey additional information over and above the consensus analyst forecast error when management guidance appears to be successful. JEL classification : G14, G24, G29, M41
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