Belt and Road Initiative’s Regional Impact: Lessons from South Asia

Abstract

Since its launch in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has attracted frequent commentary and analysis. Much of these discussions have focused on its effectiveness and viability as a large-scale economic as well as geopolitical project. This paper contributes to that discussion by exploring BRI’s impact on regional organizations, specifically in South Asia. Using South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) as a case study, I argue that BRI’s impact on regional organization is inadequately understood. BRI is not a competitor to regional organizations, but its presence in a region creates a priority conundrum for member states i.e., members who join effectively must mainline the BRI into their national interests. By offering transactional functionality, BRI offers member states the opportunity to access immediate tangible benefits like foreign investment and infrastructure development. While states continue to be the members of various international and regional organizations, their commitment and policy priorities inevitably end up aligning with BRI if they choose to sign up. With BRI as a part of their national interest, states inadvertently cede policy autonomy, especially on issues of concern for China. This creates a situation that grants China a voice in organizations where it’s not even a member. This impacts the character and culture of regional organizations creating relevancy and effectiveness concerns.