Belt and road initiative membership and voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only an unprecedented cross-continental infrastructure investment program, it is also a key pillar of China’s foreign policy. The Chinese government seeks to tie BRI member states closer to its political system and to enhance its soft power across the globe. Whether this has been successful has been analyzed for individual countries but, as of yet, there is a paucity of cross-national evidence on the geopolitical impact of the BRI. We collected a novel global dataset on bilateral cooperation agreements with China in the context of the BRI for all states across the globe. We rely on voting similarities in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to analyze whether the decision to join the BRI is linked to geopolitical alignment with China. We apply generalized synthetic control models and community detection algorithms to estimate the impact of BRI membership on voting similarity to China. Our findings show that the signature of BRI membership agreements had no discernible short-term impact on voting similarity to China in most regions of the world. The exception is Europe, where BRI membership induced a backlash against China. Our findings suggest that European states counter-balance to the US and signal their independence from China after signing a BRI agreement.