Abstract
Belize’s economic recovery continues but the pace is slowing. Real GDP grew by 3.2 percent in 2018, but recent data indicate a slowdown, reflecting a severe drought, with growth projected to average 2 percent during 2019-20. The primary fiscal surplus reached 2.1 percent of GDP in FY2018/19––a 4 percent of GDP rise from two years ago––but the primary surplus is expected to narrow this year and remain below 2 percent of GDP for the following two years. Public debt remains above 90 percent of GDP, the current account deficit is projected to remain large over the medium term, and international reserves are just below 3 months of imports of goods and services. The pace of structural reform has been slow. Downside risks, including from slower U.S. growth, natural disasters, crime, and renewed pressures on correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) could weaken growth and financial stability.
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