Beliefs, Portfolio Constraints, Speculation and Asset Pricing: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction of borrowing and short-sale constraints and their ultimate effects on asset pricing properties in a simultaneous presence of the constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous risk aversions and heterogeneous beliefs in the aggregate cash flow growth. The constraints negate the binding of each other, and hence they virtually never bind at once. Instead, there exist clear regions with alternative binding modes of the constraints with different constraints more likely to bind in different states of economy. The borrowing constraint is more active in bad times and the short-sale constraint is so in good times. The constraints bind intermittently—alternately at times—in transitory states of economy where their relative strength is balanced. Qualitatively matching empirically documented patterns of asset prices, I find that the constraints moderate their price effects but amplify their negative volatility effects, thereby can help curb the market volatility. However, a motive for speculation, featured by a speculative premium, arises due to any constraints, and thus can exist in any states of economy, not only in good times.