Belief rule-based inference methodology to improve nuclear safeguards information evaluation

Abstract

A framework for modeling, analyzing and synthesizing nuclear safeguards information with various uncertainties is proposed by using a newly developed belief rule-base inference methodology (RIMER). After a hierarchical analysis of States' nuclear activities on the basis of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) physical model, the multi-layer structure of the evaluation model for States' nuclear activities is outlined. The special emphasis is given to the synthesis and evaluation analysis of the physical model indicator information by RIMER, which handles hybrid uncertain information in nuclear safeguards evaluation process. The proposed framework illustrates and clarifies the inference and synthesis formalism from a case study of nuclear safeguards information evaluation.