Abstract
Compared to conventional energy sources, wind power is a clean energy source with high intermittence and uncertainty. As a system that converts wind energy into electricity, wind farms inevitably face severe reliability issues. In this paper, based on reliability theory, a new reliability modeling method for wind farms is proposed. Firstly, a belief reliability model for wind farms is constructed. Then, a power generation model based on two-directional rotor equivalent wind speed is established to represent the wind farm performance in the belief reliability model. Finally, several numerical studies are conducted to verify the power generation model under different wind speeds and directions, to demonstrate the belief reliability model with different levels of uncertainty, and to compare the belief reliability considering two-directional rotor equivalent wind speed with other methods.
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