Belarus Foreign Policy: a Small State in Search for a Shelter

Abstract

The article explores the foreign policy of the Republic of Belarus. Belarus declared a multi-vector policy at the doctrinal level, and neutrality — at the constitutional level. The analysis of the foreign policy course confirms the dominance of the Eastern (Russian) vector. The author aims to explain this choice of official Minsk. In his search for the answer, the author makes use of the concept of a small state. To defend national security, a small state can use one of the options of strategy-balancing, banqueting, strategic hedging and neutrality policy. The author concludes that none of these practices can explain the dominance of the Russian direction in the foreign policy of Belarus. The article argues that these strategies are suitable for large or medium-sized powers, but not for small states like Belarus. The author refers to the theory of “refuge” (“shelter”), which was developed by Baldur Thorhallson, Alison Baileys, Sverrir Staynsson, etc. Much attention is paid to the main structural components of this theory (military-political, economic and social). Applying the theory of shelter to Belarus, the author consistently studies the role of Russia in solving the difficulties of Minsk caused by the small size of the state. Some political analysts argue that the CSTO provides and supports military sovereignty, and economic assistance to Belarus through the provision of loans that goes along the lines of the Eurasian Fund for stabilization and development, as well as on a bilateral basis. In conclusion, the author states that the prevalence of the Eastern vector in Minsk’s foreign policy is due to some difficulties that Russia, not Brussels or Washington, helps it overcome.