Beijing Raising the Ante in the Natunas: The Next Flash Point in the South China Sea?

Abstract

China’s nine-dash line or U-shape line claim in the South China Sea overlaps with Indonesia’s 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone (EEZ). There have been several instances where Jakarta and China have entered into skirmishes involving fishing vessels in the Natuna area. The latest encroachment by China into Indonesian Natuna EEZ witnessed a departure of China’s justification for such action when it argued that it has sovereignty over the Nansha (Spratly) Islands and also sovereign rights over relevant waters near the Nansha Islands. Jakarta rejected both the arguments and insisted that under United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) China does not have legal basis to claim either traditional fishing grounds or parts of the Natuna waters and invoked the 2016 UN Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling to back its position. This article examines Indonesia’s response vis-à-vis China and argues that with the rise of nationalism over ownership of the Natunas it is likely to progress into an area of potential conflict between Indonesia and China.