Behaviour validity of a simulation model for sustainable development

Abstract

System dynamics simulation models are well suited for the analysis of problems related to sustainable development. This is due to their ability to take an integrative view of social, economic and environmental factors and link the observable patterns to microlevel structure and decision process. Despite their capabilities, the acceptance of system dynamics simulation models by the broader community of decision makers is limited. We argue that reluctance by the system dynamics modellers to expose their models to formal behaviour validity procedures is the main problem. This leads to an outline of formal behaviour validity procedures available but less explored in system dynamics modelling 'repertoire'. An illustration of the multiple tests and the Theil inequality statistics for behaviour validity of a system dynamics simulation model for sustainable energy policy development follows. Finally, various conclusions on the increased appeal for simulation models for sustainable development initiatives are also presented.