Behavioral risk compensation and the efficacy of nonpharmacological interventions

Oliver Kacelnik,Alex Kacelnik

doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.1

Abstract

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world into drastic measures without the normal evidence base or analyses of consequences. We present a quantitative model that can be used to rapidly assess the introduction and interaction of nonpharmaceutical infection prevention measures (NPI) both in rapid a priori predictions and in real-world a posteriori evaluations. Two of the most popular NPIs are imposing minimum physical interpersonal distancing and the use of face coverings. The success of both measures is highly dependent on the behavior of the public. However, there is very little published information about the interactions between distance, mask wearing, and the behavioral adaptations that they are likely to generate. We explore the relation between these two fundamental NPIs and the behavioral responses that they may induce, considering both risk compensation and social norms enhancement. At present, we do not have the necessary information to parameterize our model to a sufficient degree to generate quantitative, immediately applicable, advice, but we explore a vast parameter space and illustrate how the consequences of such measures can range from highly beneficial to paradoxically harmful in plausible real situations.

Highlights

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has led to some of the most widespread, drastic, and rushed public health measures the world has ever seen
Effectiveness is strongly dependent on the behavior of the public, but behavior is often overlooked and excluded from both predictive and a posteriori analyses. This may be partly due to the near absence of tools suitable to assess how the nonpharmaceutical infection prevention measures (NPI) interact with the behavioral adaptations that they are likely to elicit
The framework described below focuses on decision-making, a posteriori analysis, and justification of regulations regarding social distancing and face covering in the context of SARS-CoV-2, but the modeling strategy is applicable to other situations where the ultimate efficacy of NPIs depends on behavior

Summary

Introduction

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has led to some of the most widespread, drastic, and rushed public health measures the world has ever seen. The framework described below focuses on decision-making, a posteriori analysis, and justification of regulations regarding social distancing and face covering in the context of SARS-CoV-2, but the modeling strategy is applicable to other situations where the ultimate efficacy of NPIs depends on behavior.

Results

Conclusion