Behavioral game of quarantine during the monkeypox epidemic: Analysis of deterministic and fractional order approach

Abstract

This work concerns the epidemiology of infectious diseases like monkeypox (mpox) in humans and animals. Our models examine transmission scenarios, including transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and both. We approach this using evolutionary game theory, specifically the intervention game-theoretical (IGT) framework, to study how human behavior can mitigate disease transmission without perfect vaccines and treatments. To do this, we use non-pharmaceutical intervention, namely the quarantine policy, which demonstrates the delayed effect of the epidemic. Additionally, we contemplate quarantine-based behavioral intervention policies in deterministic and fractional-order models to show behavioral impact in the context of the memory effect. Firstly, we extensively analyzed the model's positivity and boundness of the solution, reproduction number, disease-free and endemic equilibrium, possible stability, existence, concavity, and Ulam-Hyers stability for the fractional order. Subsequently, we proceeded to present a numerical analysis that effectively illustrates the repercussions of varying quarantine-related factors, information probability, and protection probability. We aimed to comprehensively examine the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on disease control, which we conveyed through line graphs and 2D heat maps. Our findings underscored the significant influence of strict quarantine measures and the protection of both humans and animals in mitigating disease outbreaks. These measures not only significantly curtailed the spread of the disease but also delayed the occurrence of the epidemic's peak. Conversely, when quarantine maintenance policies were implemented at lower rates and protection levels diminished, we observed contrasting outcomes that exacerbated the situation. Eventually, our analysis revealed the emergence of animal reservoirs in cases involving disease transmission between humans and animals.