Behavioral explanation of contagion between oil and stock markets

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries, during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, after controlling for fundamentals-driven co-movements. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the volatility spillover among oil market and stock markets, the conditional variance of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model includes three variables: oil returns, US index returns, and the respective individual market returns of 22 oil-importing and exporting countries. The authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of oil market and each stock index. Also, the authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of US market and each stock index. Findings – The estimation of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model for VIX, oil market and 23 stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries suggests the volatility spillover of American investor sentiment to stock market and oil market returns. To capture the pure contagion effects between oil market and stock markets, the authors estimate the forecasting errors of time-varying parameter using the Kalman independently of macroeconomic fundamentals factors. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil price returns and stock indices returns. The authors show a sharp increase in time-varying correlation coefficients during the oil crisis and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, which provides strong evidence of herding contagion between oil market and stock markets during the turmoil period. Originality/value – This paper makes an original contribution in identifying the behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and exporting countries especially during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009. Specifically, the authors consider investor sentiment and herding bias to explain the volatility transmission between oil and stock market returns.