Abstract
This study aims at identifying the tools necessary for COVID-19 health emergency management, with particular reference to the period following the first lockdown, a crucial phase in which it was important to favor the maintenance of protective behaviors. It also aims at identifying the messages and sources that were most effective in managing communication correctly in such a crucial phase that is likely characterized by a fall in perceived health risk (due to the flattening of the epidemic curve) and a simultaneous rise in perceived economic and social risks (due to the enduring calamity). Knowing what source will be most effective to convey a specific message is fundamental in enabling individuals to focus on and comply with the rules. At the same time, it is necessary to understand how the message should be presented, and the relationships between messages, sources and targets. To meet these goals, data were collected through a self-administered online questionnaire submitted to a sample of undergraduate students from a University in Lombardy–the region most affected by the pandemic in the first wave- (Study 1), and to a national sample composed of Italian citizens (Study 2). Through our first manipulation which explored the effectiveness of social norms in relation to different sources, we found that, in the national sample, the injunctive norm conveyed by the government was the most effective in promoting behavioral intentions. By contrast, among the students, results showed that for the critical group with a lower risk perception (less inclined to adopt prevention behavior) descriptive norms, which implicitly convey the risk perception of peers, were as effective as the government injunctive norm. Our second manipulation, identical in Study 1 and 2, compared four types of communication (emotional, exponential growth, both of them, or neutral). The neutral condition was the most memorable, but no condition was more effective than the others. Across all message types there was a high intention to adopt protective behaviors. The results indicate possible applicative implications of the adopted communicative tools.
Highlights
In everyday life, it is rare to deal with numerically determined risks, and to tackle the uncertainties we face we mainly rely on our own experiences and data extracted from our environment, even if doing so produce severe distortions in judgment and decision making
In the light of what has emerged from the literature on the phenomenon so far, the present paper aims at identifying the social norms, sources and contents that would be most effective in promoting prevention behaviors in this crucial phase -between two waves- of the pandemic, in which the contagion declines, legislative norms are loosened, and there is a risk of relapse
Knowledge About the Behaviors Relevant to COVID-19 Infection Prevention The knowledge of the participants on the relevant behaviors to contain the COVID-19 infection is in line with the provisions given by the Ministry of Health
Summary
It is rare to deal with numerically determined risks, and to tackle the uncertainties we face we mainly rely on our own experiences and data extracted from our environment, even if doing so produce severe distortions in judgment and decision making. The complexity of natural and social phenomena led Savage (1954) to distinguish between a small world and a large world The former is characterized by the possibility of identifying relevant alternatives, consequences, and probabilities to explain and predict phenomena, while the latter, does not allow for this because a relevant part of information remains unknown. Epistemic uncertainty “occurs when, ideally, empirical research and the collection of data are able to supply statistical figures that characterize relevant variables, their consequences, and probabilities” (Viale, 2020b). In a situation of epistemic uncertainty, the treatment of the phenomenon depends, greatly, on the decisions taken in a heuristic and adaptive way (Gigerenzer et al, 1999), and on the progress of data collection, which, once the statistical risks have been identified, allows decision-makers to devise more appropriate measures to manage the emergency
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