Behavioral brittleness: the case for strategic behavioral public policy

Ruth Schmidt,Katelyn Stenger

doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.16

Ruth Schmidt, Katelyn Stenger

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2021.16

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Abstract

AbstractDespite widespread recognition that behavioral public policy (BPP) needs to move beyond nudging if the field is to achieve more significant impact, problem-solving approaches remain optimized to achieve tactical success and are evaluated by short-term metrics with the assumption of stable systems. As a result, current methodologies may contribute to the development of solutions that appear well formed but become ‘brittle’ in the face of more complex contexts if they fail to consider important contextual cues, broader system forces, and emergent conditions, which can take three distinct forms: contextual, systemic, and anticipatory brittleness. The Covid-19 pandemic and vaccination rollout present an opportunity to identify and correct interventional brittleness with a new methodological approach – strategic BPP (SBPP) – that can inform the creation of more resilient solutions by embracing more diverse forms of evidence and applied foresight, designing interventions within ecosystems, and iteratively developing solutions. To advance the case for adopting a SBPP and ‘roughly right’ modes of inquiry, we use the Covid-19 vaccination rollout to define a new methodological roadmap, while also acknowledging that taking a more strategic approach may challenge current BPP norms.

Highlights

Thrust into the spotlight in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, behavioral public policy (BPP) interventions to reduce and contain the virus covered widespread territory, ranging from an initial focus on information dissemination, to norming effective handwashing, encouraging social distancing and mask-wearing, and promoting shelter-in-place recommendations (Bavel et al, 2020; Johnson et al, 2020; Lunn et al, 2020)
Where above we described a general conceptual model for how strategic BPP (SBPP) might expand on traditional BPP practice, we articulate how SBPP can reduce potential interventional brittleness in the context of a specific Covid-19 pandemic behavioral challenge: the vaccination rollout
Covid-19 and other large-scale public health and sustainability challenges indicate that insights used to inform BPP interventions are as applicable to complex conditions as they are well-defined and predictable ones, and that policymakers must develop new appetites for methodologies that embrace, rather than excise, uncertainty (Sanders et al, 2018; Spencer, 2018), and for qualitative data that provide directional, rather than confirmatory, evidence in order to address them

Summary

Introduction

Thrust into the spotlight in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, behavioral public policy (BPP) interventions to reduce and contain the virus covered widespread territory, ranging from an initial focus on information dissemination, to norming effective handwashing, encouraging social distancing and mask-wearing, and promoting shelter-in-place recommendations (Bavel et al, 2020; Johnson et al, 2020; Lunn et al, 2020). Addressing contextual brittleness remains distinct from achieving generalizability, gaining heterogeneous insight across user contexts through generative research methodologies can contribute to the development of abstracted principles, or decision rules, that indicate how desirable characteristics of solutions might apply elsewhere without resorting to formula (Bohlen et al, 2020; Ho et al, 2020; Supplee & Kane, 2020) The use of these principles as guardrails for hypothesis development, functions less as prescriptive mandates for solution development and more to provide a shared set of attributes across many comparable challenges, while recognizing the need to address specific contextual conditions when implementing concrete policy interventions. While scenario planning is not infallible – the exercise failed to anticipate the degree to which an uncoordinated federal response would hinder efforts to curtail the spread of the virus – scenario-based forecasting can combat brittleness by providing data on likely condition shifts, system effects, and user adaptation that might impact intervention success while solutions are still being developed, deployed, and refined

Design interventions with systems view

Relevant methods and techniques

Conclusion