Behavioral Aspects of Commodity Markets

Abstract

Are behavioral biases prevalent in commodities and futures markets? Although retail equity investors display many psychological biases, investors who are more sophisticated exhibit fewer biases. The market makers, traders (locals), speculators, hedgers, and institutions of the commodities and futures markets tend to be professional participants, and thus less prone to behavioral biases. Nevertheless, the fast-paced action of these markets is an environment that fosters behavioral errors. This chapter reviews the literature on the pervasiveness of prospect theory behavior and other biases in these markets. Strong evidence indicates that market participants exhibit loss aversion, the impact of reference points, the disposition effect, and overconfidence. They also engage in positive feedback trading and momentum investing. Lastly, the chapter reviews risk-taking and behavioral biases by the type of market participant, particularly focusing on market makers, floor traders, clearing members, and the public.