Abstract

Secondary glioblastomas (sGBM) are derived from previously lower-grade [World Health Organization (WHO) grades II or III] gliomas. Lower-grade benign-behaving gliomas may retain their former grade following recurrence, or may become malignant higher-grade glioblastomas. Prediction of tumor behavior in lower-grade gliomas is critical for individualized glioma therapy. A total of 89 patients were included between January 2000 and January 2019 in the present study to establish a nomogram via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Nomogram predictive performance was tested in the validation group. We then analyzed 36 O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) unmethylated lower-grade gliomas from patients seen at West China Hospital of Sichuan University. Survival statistics were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Two clinical factors (molecular diagnosis and WHO grade), five radiological factors (location, cortical involvement, multicentricity, uniformity, and margin enhancement), one biomarker (1p19q codeletion), and a combination of three biomarkers (IDH+/ATRX-/TP53-) were associated with glioma upgrading. Nomograms positive for these prognostic factors had an AUC of 0.880 in the derivation group and 0.857 in the validation group. The calibration and score-stratified survival curves for the derivation group and validation group were good. An operational nomogram was published at https://warrenwrl.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/. The overall survival of secondary gliomas in the MGMT-unmethylated cohort were influenced independently by the use of temozolomide during the treatment of formerly low-grade gliomas (p=0.00096). Clinical and radiological factors and biomarker-based behavior-oriented nomograms may offer a feasible identification tool for the detection of sGBM precursors. This method may further assist neurosurgeons with the stratification of lower-grade glioma cases and thus the development of better, more individualized treatment plans.

Highlights

  • Gliomas are among the most common adult brain tumors

  • A histopathological review of tumor specimens at initial diagnosis revealed 63 (70.8%) WHO grade II and 26 (29.2%) WHO grade III gliomas

  • Astrocytic molecular diagnosis (54, 60.7%) was more prevalent, while the remaining 35 tumors (39.3%) were oligodendroglial, and 40 of the 89 tumors were upgraded to Secondary glioblastomas (sGBM) after recurrence

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Summary

Introduction

Gliomas are among the most common adult brain tumors. Due to their diffusely infiltrative nature and significant molecular and cellular heterogeneity, glioma tumor recurrence is almost inevitable in most cases [1]. The histological and staging classification of glioblastomas follows a unique grading system. For considerable number of gliomas, recurrence is inevitable. Lower grade (WHO grades II or III) benign-behaving gliomas been resected in the former surgery may recur in their former grade, or become higher-grade, malignant glioblastomas, as the secondary glioblastoma (sGBM). Because of a lack of adequate overall survival (OS)-oriented studies, the prediction of lower-grade glioma behavior is difficult, rendering individualized glioma therapy more difficult

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