BEHAVIOR IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS, AND PRONE TO RISK OR CAUTION

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to appreciate the possibility to use the method of study of probabilistic forecasting for staff selection needs. Indicators of probabilistic forecasting, prone to risk were studied in a stochastic environment. This is a pilot study, because a well known technique: Bayesian logic applied to decision making with probability inference - using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events - in the new modification was used. The novelty lies in the fact that, besides the opportunity to study the prognostic abilities of the brain in a situation of uncertainty, was made an attempt to study the impact on the forecasting process of emotions associated with possible monetary gain or loss. Differences in effectiveness and dynamics of probabilistic activity were revealed in persons with differing extent of gain and temperament type. Key words: individual differences, probability learning risky behavior, type of temperament.