Before the Storm: Momentum and the Onset of the Gulf War

Abstract

Scholars, policymakers, and lay observers share the vocabulary of conflict. But, strangely enough, international politics theorists ignore momentum-a commonly acknowledged source of competitive outcomes. This study formally introduces the concept of momentum to the theoretical vocabulary of international politics. It does so by examining the assumptions underlying momentum, translating the phenomenon into observable effects, and testing its utility with an event data set drawn from newspaper accounts of the roughly half year preceding the Gulf War. Factor analyses of relative behavior intensities suggest that behavior, over the long term, cycled in a manner consistent with momentum and engulfed all conflict participants. Scholars, policymakers, and lay observers share the vocabulary of conflict. But, strangely enough, international politics theorists ignore momentum-a commonly acknowledged, yet theoretically promising, source of competitive behavior. The neglect of the concept is somewhat understandable given the confused and varied use of the term; even empirical treatments of the concept in social scientific research do not entirely match implied meanings. Nevertheless, while elusive, momentum can be explicitly defined and studied through simple causal relationships to determine whether it should be considered a valid explanation for international cooperative, competitive, and conflictual outcomes. This study formally introduces the concept of momentum to the theoretical vocabulary of international politics. It does so by examining the assumptions underlying momentum, translating the phenomenon into observable effects, and testing its utility with an event data set drawn from newspaper accounts of