Beeinflussen Wirtschaftsnachrichten auch Wirtschaftserwartungen von Experten?: Die Prognosequalität von öffentlich-rechtlichen und Service public Wirtschaftsnachrichten für Erwartungen von Wirtschaftsexperten in Deutschland und in der Schweiz

Abstract

Economic news may not only report about the economy but also impact the development of an economy by affecting economic expectations. This study explores the impact of economic news on the economic expectations of experts. A content analysis of economic news tone and volume of two German and one Swiss public service news shows is combined with survey data on macroeconomic expectations of experts on the topics of general economy, capital expenditures, and private consumption. Results confirm that past news tone explains economic expectations on private consumption up to 70 per cent. This effect varies among news shows and the overall economic situation. The authors hold media dependency and an asymmetric third-person effect responsible for these variations.