Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

CO2 and tectonic controls on Antarctic climate and ice-sheet evolution in the mid-Miocene

The extent and thickness of Antarctic sea ice have important climatic effects on radiation balance, energy transfer between the atmosphere and ocean, and moisture availability. This paper explores the role of sea ice and related feedbacks in the Cenozoic evolution of Antarctic climate and ice sheets, using a numerical climate model with explicit, dynamical representations of sea ice and continental ice sheets. In a scenario of decreasing Cenozoic greenhouse gas concentrations, our model initiates continental glaciation before any significant sea ice forms around the continent. Once variable ice sheets are established, seasonal sea ice distribution is highly sensitive to orbital forcing and ice sheet geometry via the ice sheet’s control on regional temperature and low‐level winds. Although the expansion of sea ice has significant climatic effects near the coast, it has only minimal effects in the continental interior and on the size of the ice sheet. Therefore the Cenozoic appearance of Antarctic sea ice was primarily a response to the growth of grounded ice sheets and was not a critical factor in episodes of Paleogene and Neogene glaciation. The influence of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on sea ice, Southern Ocean surface temperatures, and winds has important implications for ocean circulation, the marine carbon cycle, and the development of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The sensitivity of sea ice to grounded ice sheets implies reconstructions of sea ice based on marine diatoms are good indicators of glacial conditions in the continental interior and may provide insight into the long‐term stability of Antarctic Ice Sheets.

Sea-level records show large glacial-interglacial changes over the past million years, which on these time scales are related to changes of ice volume on land. During the Pleistocene, sea-level changes induced by ice volume are largely caused by the waxing and waning of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the individual contributions of ice in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are poorly constrained. In this study, for the first time a fully coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models is used, simulating glaciations on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica. The ice-sheet models use a combination of the shallow ice and shelf approximations to determine sheet, shelf and sliding velocities. The framework consists of an inverse forward modelling approach to derive a self-consistent record of temperature and ice volume from deep-sea benthic δ18O data over the past 1 million years, a proxy for ice volume and temperature. It is shown that for both eustatic sea level and sea water δ18O changes, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets are responsible for the largest part of the variability. The combined contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is about 10 % for sea level and about 20 % for sea water δ18O during glacial maxima. However, changes in interglacials are mainly caused by melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with an average time lag of 4 kyr between melt and temperature. Furthermore, we have tested the separate response to changes in temperature and sea level for each ice sheet, indicating that ice volume can be significantly influenced by changes in eustatic sea level alone. Hence, showing the importance of a simultaneous simulation of all four ice sheets. This paper describes the first complete simulation of global ice-volume variations over the late Pleistocene with the possibility to model changes above and below present-day ice volume, constrained by observations of benthic δ18O proxy data.

<p>The Last Interglacial (LIG; MIS 5e) period (130 - 115 ka) saw the last time in Earth’s history that polar temperatures reached 3 - 5 °C above pre-industrial values causing the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to shrink to sizes smaller than those of today. Similar polar temperature increases are predicted in the coming decades and the LIG period could therefore help to shed light on ice-sheet and sea-level responses to a warming world. </p><p>LIG estuarine sediments preserved in the North Sea region are promising study sites for identification of the Antarctic ice sheet's relative contribution to LIG sea level, as well as for the reconstruction of both the magnitude and rate of LIG sea-level change during the interglacial. For these purposes, sea-level records in the region must be corrected for the impacts of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) which is primarily a consequence of two components: the evolution of terrestrial ice masses during the Penultimate Deglaciation (MIS 6), predominantly the near-field Eurasian ice sheet, and the viscoelastic structure of the solid Earth. </p><p>The relative paucity of geological constraints on characteristics of the MIS 6 Eurasian ice sheet makes it challenging to evaluate its effect on sea level in the North Sea region. In order to model the Eurasian ice extent, thickness, and volume during the Penultimate Deglaciation we use a simple ice sheet model (Gowan et al. 2016), calibrated against models of the Last Glacial Maximum. By employing a gravitationally consistent sea-level model (Kendall et al. 2005), we generate a large ensemble of GIA outputs that spans the uncertainty in parameters controlling both the viscoelastic earth model and the evolution of global ice sheets during the Penultimate Deglaciation. By performing spatial sensitivity analysis with this ensemble, we are able to demonstrate the relative importance of each parameter in controlling North Sea GIA. Our comprehensive approach to exploring uncertainties in both the global ice sheet evolution and solid earth response provides significant advances in our understanding of LIG sea level.</p>

Abstract. Antarctic ice volume has varied substantially during the late Quaternary, with reconstructions suggesting a glacial ice sheet extending to the continental shelf break and interglacial sea level highstands of several meters. Throughout this period, changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet were driven by changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions and global sea level; yet, so far modeling studies have not addressed which of these environmental forcings dominate and how they interact in the dynamical ice sheet response. Here, we force an Antarctic Ice Sheet model with global sea level reconstructions and transient, spatially explicit boundary conditions from a 408 ka climate model simulation, not only in concert with each other but, for the first time, also separately. We find that together these forcings drive glacial–interglacial ice volume changes of 12–14 ms.l.e., in line with reconstructions and previous modeling studies. None of the individual drivers – atmospheric temperature and precipitation, ocean temperatures, or sea level – single-handedly explains the full ice sheet response. In fact, the sum of the individual ice volume changes amounts to less than half of the full ice volume response, indicating the existence of strong nonlinearities and forcing synergy. Both sea level and atmospheric forcing are necessary to create full glacial ice sheet growth, whereas the contribution of ocean melt changes is found to be more a function of ice sheet geometry than climatic change. Our results highlight the importance of accurately representing the relative timing of forcings of past ice sheet simulations and underscore the need for developing coupled climate–ice sheet modeling frameworks that properly capture key feedbacks.

Abstract. In this study we present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) since the Last Interglacial. This is achieved by means of a history-matching analysis where a newly updated observational database (AntICE2) is used to constrain a large ensemble of 9293 model simulations. The Glacial Systems Model (GSM) configured with 38 ensemble parameters was history-matched against observations of past ice extent, past ice thickness, past sea level, ice core borehole temperature profiles, present-day uplift rates, and present-day ice sheet geometry and surface velocity. Successive ensembles were used to train Bayesian artificial neural network emulators. The parameter space was efficiently explored to identify the most relevant portions of the parameter space through Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling with the emulators. The history matching ruled out model simulations which were inconsistent with the observational-constraint database. During the Last Interglacial (LIG), the AIS yielded several metres equivalent sea level (m e.s.l.) of grounded ice volume deficit relative to the present, with sub-surface ocean warming during this period being the key uncertainty. At the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m e.s.l. Considering the data do not rule out simulations with an LGM grounded ice volume >20 m e.s.l. with respect to the present, the AIS volume at the LGM can partly explain the missing-ice problem and help close the LGM sea-level budget. Moreover, during the deglaciation, the state space estimation of the AIS based on the GSM and near-field observational constraints allows only a negligible Antarctic Meltwater Pulse 1a contribution (−0.2 to 0.3 m e.s.l.).

Chapter 3 A History of Antarctic Cenozoic Glaciation – View from the Margin

<p>A longstanding hypothesis for near-synchronous evolution of global ice sheets over ice-age cycles invokes an interhemispheric sea-level forcing whereby sea-level rise due to ice loss in the Northern Hemisphere in response to insolation and greenhouse gas forcing causes grounding-line retreat of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). Recent studies have shown that the AIS experienced substantial millennial-scale variability during and after the last deglaciation, with several times of recorded increased iceberg flux and grounding line retreat coinciding, within uncertainty, with well documented global sea-level rise events, providing further evidence of this sea-level forcing. However, the sea level changes associated with ice sheet mass loss are strongly nonuniform due to gravitational, deformational and Earth rotational effects, suggesting that the response of the AIS to Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing is more complicated than previously modelled.</p><p>We adopt an ice-sheet model coupled to a global sea-level model to show that a large or rapid Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing enhances grounding-line advance and associated mass gain of the AIS during glaciation, and grounding-line retreat and AIS mass loss during deglaciation. Relative to models without these interactions, including the Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing leads to a larger AIS volume during the Last Glacial Maximum (about 26,000 to 20,000 years ago), subsequent earlier grounding-line retreat and millennial-scale AIS variability throughout the last deglaciation. These findings are consistent with geologic reconstructions of the extent of the AIS during the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent ice-sheet retreat, and with relative sea-level change in Antarctica. </p>

According to geological records, the sea level during the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–116 ka) peaked 6 to 9 m higher than during the pre-industrial with a major contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet (Dutton et al. 2015). According to Clark et al. 2020, a longer period of reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the penultimate deglaciation compared to the last deglaciation could have led to greater subsurface warming and subsequent larger Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat.Here we study the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing with a forced AMOC shutdown at different timing and duration during the penultimate deglaciation (∼ 138–128 ka). The simulations are done with the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity iLOVECLIM (Roche et al. 2014) and the ice sheet model GRISLI (Quiquet et al. 2018), using the recently implemented sub-shelf melt module PICO (Reese et al. 2018). In the present simulations the GRISLI is forced with the iLOVECLIM simulations and is a step towards a fully coupled climate - ice sheet set up to take into account the climate - ice sheet interactions in a physical way.We hypothesize that both the duration and timing of reduced AMOC can significantly affect the sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. A longer period of AMOC reduction will lead to a larger subsurface warming in the Southern Ocean and subsequently a larger ice sheet retreat. On the other hand, an AMOC reduction earlier (later) in the deglaciation implies that the ice sheet that is affected by this subsurface warming is still fairly large (already small). We will discuss both the individual as well as combined effect of duration and timing on the ice sheet evolution.

<p>The Last Interglacial (LIG) period (130 - 115 ka) was the last time in Earth’s history that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were smaller than those of today due, in part, to polar temperatures reaching 3 - 5 °C above pre-industrial values. Similar polar temperature increases are predicted in the coming decades and the LIG period could therefore help to shed light on ice sheet and sea level mechanisms in a warming world.</p><p>The North Sea region is a promising study site for the reconstruction of both the magnitude and rate of LIG sea-level change as well as the identification of relative, individual ice sheet contributions to sea level. The impact of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is particularly significant for the North Sea region due to its proximity to the former Eurasian ice sheet, which deglaciated during the penultimate deglaciation leading into the LIG. The evolution of the local Eurasian and global ice sheets during the penultimate glacial cycle has left a complex spatio-temporal pattern of GIA during the LIG, both regionally and globally. In addition, interpretation of the LIG record is further complicated by uncertainties in ongoing earth deformation and sea level evolution since the LIG. However, there are large uncertainties in the geometry and evolution of global ice sheets before the Last Glacial Maximum and, in particular, a major source of uncertainty for North Sea LIG records is the geometry and evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (PGM).</p><p>We produce a range of plausible global ice sheet histories spanning the last 400 thousand years that vary in penultimate deglaciation characteristics including glacial maximum ice sheet volume, deglaciation timing, and the ice volume distribution of the Eurasian ice sheet. This novel PGM Eurasian component is constructed with the use of a simple ice sheet model (Gowan et al. 2016) enabling systematic variation in the thickness of each ice sheet region within known uncertainty ranges. We then employ a gravitationally consistent sea level model (Kendall et al. 2005) with a range of viscoelastic Earth structure models to calculate the global GIA response to each ice history and to infer which input parameters the North Sea LIG signal is most sensitive to. This work will improve our understanding of the GIA effects on near field relative sea level during previous interglacials and will enable a systematic quantification of uncertainties in LIG sea level in the North Sea.</p>

Chapter 11 Late Pliocene–Pleistocene Antarctic Climate Variability at Orbital and Suborbital Scale: Ice Sheet, Ocean and Atmospheric Interactions

Local insolation changes enhance Antarctic interglacials: Insights from an 800,000-year ice sheet simulation with transient climate forcing

<p>Ice sheets and the rest of the climate system interact in various ways, notably via the atmosphere, ocean and solid earth. Atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and circulations affect the evolution of ice-sheets, and conversely ice-sheet evolution impacts the rest of the climate system via various processes, including albedo modification, topographic changes and freshwater flux release into the ocean. To correctly model the evolution of the climate system and sea level rise, these feedbacks therefore need to be considered.</p><p>Under the highest emission scenario, temperature is expected to reach levels comparable to the Eocene epoch in a few centuries [1]. At this time, there was no widespread glaciation in Antarctica.</p><p>The work of Garbe et al [2] has shown that the Antarctic ice sheet has a hysteresis behavior and gave different temperature thresholds leading to committed Antarctic mass loss. For example, between 6 and 9 degrees of warming (a global temperature increase comparable to the one expected in 2300 for the most emissive scenario), the loss of 70% of the present-day ice volume is triggered. However, the modelling study used idealized perturbations of the climate fields based solely on global mean temperature. More specifically, global mean temperature is translated into local changes of ocean and surface air temperature and increased until a complete deglaciation of the Antarctic ice-sheet is reached. In addition the study did not take into account the ice sheet change feedback on the climate system.</p><p>In our work we intend to go a step further by taking into account both the influence of atmosphere and oceanic temperature and circulations on the ice sheet in a physical way, as well as the influence of the ice sheet on the rest of the climate system.</p><p>To do so, we use the coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation intermediate complexity model iLOVECLIM [3], fully coupled to the GRISLI ice-sheet model for Antarctica [4, 5].</p><p>We perform several multi-millenia equilibria simulations for different pCO2 levels, thanks to the relative rapidity of both the iLOVECLIM and GRISLI models. These simulations lead to different atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and Antarctic mass loss. </p><p>These coupled simulations allow us to explore the impact of the ice sheet feedback on the climate and to investigate the differences compared to cases where these feedbacks are not included. The influence of the model parameters linked to the ice sheet coupling is also studied.</p><p> </p><p>References :</p><p>[1] Westerhold et al 2020, “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years”</p><p>[2] Garbe et al 2020 “The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet”</p><p>[3] Quiquet et al 2018, “Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the <em>i</em>LOVECLIM model (version 1.1)”</p><p>[4] Quiquet et al 2018, “The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet”</p><p>[5] Quiquet et al 2021 “Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model”</p>

Research progress in geophysical exploration of the Antarctic ice sheet