Bear market slashes at human genome. The dropping guesses about the number of human genes challenges researchers to explain human complexity with so few genes.

Abstract

The media took fascinated note last May when genome researchers started gambling on the number of human genes. One trend was apparent immediately: the estimates of human gene number—made by the people who ought to know if anyone did—were low compared with those made just a few years ago, when the number often tossed around was 100 000, give or take. For some weeks, the median GeneSweep bet (http://www.ensembl.org/genesweep.html) stood at just under 54 000. In June this year, Nature Genetics acknowledged the same trend. It published three major papers estimating human gene number. Two of the three assessments were very low: ∼34 000 and 30 000 genes. With nearly 300 wagers recorded as of early August, the GeneSweep estimates have trended upward again, which may have something to do with the announced completion of a working draft of the human genome sequence at the end of June. At that time, the National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) confirmed the existence of 38 000 predicted genes. So it appears that anyone who bet below that is out of luck. Although there are contrary opinions, of course, the luminaries are at the head of the parade. NHGRI's director Francis Collins has joined the accelerating trend to lowball guesses; his wager is 48 011. David Baltimore, perhaps taking his cue from the project leader, wrote in The New York Times that 50 000 seemed about right to him. > Can it be that our illustrious species has only two or three times as many genes as a transparent worm which dwells in the dirt beneath our feet? For the purposes of GeneSweep wagering, a gene is defined as a protein‐coding sequence. Alternatively spliced transcripts are counted as one gene. Yet the numbers wagered are disconcerting, especially when compared with the gene count of …