Abstract
TV debates are often seen as the most important events that provide the electorate with information about leading candidates and key issues during electoral campaigns. Research provides evidence for various debate effects, showing both a direct and indirect influence on voting decisions. There is, however, only scant evidence on the relative impact of TV debates when examining these effects at the same time. To fill this gap, our study aims to analyse whether and to what extent a candidate's participation in a debate, their performance in the debate or the related media coverage influence the electorate when examined simultaneously. We consider the case of the 2017 Dutch general elections, which offers an almost ideal setting due to the broadcast of several TV debates of different formats and candidate compositions throughout the campaign period. To distinguish the effects of single debates, we use original Dutch panel survey data. We find a weak overall influence of the debates; the most significant effects are decreasing vote intentions for the two main competitors (VVD and PVV) after both candidates refused to participate in the first TV debate, and a ‘winner-effect’ for one of the two main candidates in a head-to-head debate.
Highlights
TV debates are an integral part of election campaigns in many countries
The main goal of this study is to examine the relative influence of debate effects by answering our overall research question: To what extent is voting behaviour influenced by candidate participation and performance in TV debates, and by the subsequent coverage of those debates in the media?
For an easier interpretation of the regression results and respective debate effects, we rely on graphical presentations of average marginal effect plots, which present changes in predicted probabilities to vote for a given party
Summary
TV debates are an integral part of election campaigns in many countries. They have the highest coverage compared to other televised campaign events, but are often seen as the most important events in any election campaign. The direct watching effect can be distin guished into (i) the mere (non-)presence of a candidate in a debate, and (ii) their related performance during the discussion with political op ponents. The main goal of this study is to examine the relative influence of debate effects by answering our overall research question: To what extent is voting behaviour influenced by candidate participation and performance in TV debates, and by the subsequent coverage of those debates in the media?
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