Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), puts all of us to the test. Epidemiologic observations could critically aid the development of protective measures to combat this devastating viral outbreak. Recent observations, linked nation based universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination to potential protection against morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2, and received much attention in public media. We wished to validate the findings by examining the country based association between COVID-19 mortality per million population, or daily rates of COVID-19 case fatality (i.e. Death Per Case/Days of the endemic [dpc/d]) and the presence of universal BCG vaccination before 1980, or the year of the establishment of universal BCG vaccination. These associations were examined in multiple regression modeling based on publicly available databases on both April 3rd and May 15th of 2020. COVID-19 deaths per million negatively associated with universal BCG vaccination in a country before 1980 based on May 15th data, but this was not true for COVID-19 dpc/d on either of days of inquiry. We also demonstrate possible arbitrary selection bias in such analyses. Consequently, caution should be exercised amidst the publication surge on COVID-19, due to political/economical-, arbitrary selection-, and fear/anxiety related biases, which may obscure scientific rigor. We argue that global COVID-19 epidemiologic data is unreliable and therefore should be critically scrutinized before using it as a nidus for subsequent hypothesis driven scientific discovery.
Highlights
There is a current global crisis from the Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic [1]
COVID-19 is caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which is a medium-sized, enveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus of the Coronaviridae family
We found no significant association between universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination and country based COVID-19 mortality variation as defined by an arguably more precise death rate definition than death/million, as examined by Miller, et al [22], or by Escobar, et al [25]
Summary
There is a current global crisis from the Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic [1]. COVID-19 is caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which is a medium-sized, enveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus of the Coronaviridae family. SARS-CoV-2 is the pathogen of the third, large, severe respiratory syndrome outbreak caused by Coronaviruses (CoVs) (1: SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] which emerged in late 2002 and disappeared by 2004; 2: MERS [Middle East respiratory syndrome], which emerged in 2012 and remains in circulation in camels]) [2].
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