Bayesian Updating Approach for Flexible Pavements Considering Fatigue and Rutting Failures

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, an efficient approach for Bayesian updating of design parameters of flexible pavements is developed. Using Bayesian theorem, the updated design parameters are the integration of the prior knowledge and the observed information on the pavement failure. Two primary failure modes of flexible pavements, fatigue and rutting, are simulated using mechanistic–empirical approaches. The mechanistic–empirical models and the Bayesian framework are implemented in spreadsheets for the ease of engineering applications. The developed spreadsheet-based approach is demonstrated to be effective in the probabilistic back-analysis using the observed fatigue and rutting failures. This developed Bayesian updating approach is based on optimization method and, thus, it requires much less sophisticated modeling and much less computational effort. The updated design parameters as well as the associated variability will significantly contribute to the decision-making process of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation.