Bayesian uncertainty quantification for synthesizing superheavy elements

Abstract

To improve the theoretical prediction power for synthesizing superheavy elements beyond Og, a Bayesian uncertainty quantification method is employed to evaluate the uncertainty of the calculated evaporation residue cross sections (ERCS) for the first time. The key parameters of the dinuclear system model (DNS-sysu), such as the diffusion parameter a, the damping factor Ed, and the level-density parameter ratio af/an are systematically constrained by the Bayesian analysis of recent ERCS data. One intriguing behaviour is shown that the optimal incident energies (OIE) corresponding to the largest ERCS weakly depend on the fission process. We also find that these parameters are strongly correlated and the uncertainty propagation considering the parameters independently is not reasonable. The 2σ confidence level of posterior distributions for a=0.586−0.002+0.002 fm, Ed=25.65−3.41+3.43 MeV, and af/an=1.081−0.021+0.021 are obtained. Furthermore, the confidence levels of the ERCS and OIE for synthesizing Z = 119 via the reactions Cr54+243Am, Ti50+249Bk, and V51+248Cm are predicted. This work sets the stage for future analyses to explore the OIE and reaction systems for the synthesis of superheavy elements.