Bayesian Reliability and Performance Assessment for Multi-State Systems

Abstract

This paper develops a Bayesian framework to assess the reliability and performance of multi-state systems (MSSs). An MSS consists of multiple multi-state components of which the degradation follows a Markov process. Due to the lack of sufficient data, and only vague knowledge from experts, the transition intensities of multi-state components between any pair of states and the state probabilities cannot be precisely estimated. The proposed Bayesian method can merge prior knowledge from experts' judgments with continuous and discontinuous inspection data to obtain posterior distributions of transition intensities. A simulation method embedded with the universal generating function (UGF) is developed to estimate the posterior state probabilities, the reliability, and the performance of the entire MSS. Two numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.