Abstract
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. Electronic supplementary material The on line version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
In this article we propose a method for probabilistic projection of net international migration counts and rates
We have presented a method for projecting net international migration rates
It satisfies the requirement that simulated trajectories have zero global net migration for each sex and age group
Summary
In this article we propose a method for probabilistic projection of net international migration counts and rates. Our technique is a simple one that overcomes some of the usual difficulties of migration projection. We produce both point and interval estimates, providing a natural quantification of uncertainty. Electronic supplementary material The on line version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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