Abstract
The invasion by spreading species is one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Despite a number of empirical and theoretical studies, there is still no general model about why or when settlement becomes an invasion. The purpose of this work is to test a model of Bayesian population dynamics relying on best-response strategies that could help in resource management and bioeconomic modeling. Given the species survival probability, our static game unveils a breaking-level probability in mixed strategies, where the best response for exotic species is to invade and the best response for native species is to resist. In a dynamic setting, we introduce a stochastic version of the balance equation based on conditional probabilities. We find that when the species survival probability and the availability of resources in the ecosystem are respectively high and low, the population rebalancing dynamics operates at a high pace.
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