Bayesian population analysis of a harmonized physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of trichloroethylene and its metabolites

Abstract

Bayesian population analysis of a harmonized physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for trichloroethylene (TCE) and its metabolites was performed. In the Bayesian framework, prior information about the PBPK model parameters is updated using experimental kinetic data to obtain posterior parameter estimates. Experimental kinetic data measured in mice, rats, and humans were available for this analysis, and the resulting posterior model predictions were in better agreement with the kinetic data than prior model predictions. Uncertainty in the prediction of the kinetics of TCE, trichloroacetic acid (TCA), and trichloroethanol (TCOH) was reduced, while the kinetics of other key metabolites dichloroacetic acid (DCA), chloral hydrate (CHL), and dichlorovinyl mercaptan (DCVSH) remain relatively uncertain due to sparse kinetic data for use in this analysis. To help focus future research to further reduce uncertainty in model predictions, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to help identify the parameters that have the greatest impact on various internal dose metric predictions. For application to a risk assessment for TCE, the model provides accurate estimates of TCE, TCA, and TCOH kinetics. This analysis provides an important step toward estimating uncertainty of dose–response relationships in noncancer and cancer risk assessment, improving the extrapolation of toxic TCE doses from experimental animals to humans.