Bayesian Nonparametric Panel Markov-Switching GARCH Models

Abstract

This article proposes Bayesian nonparametric inference for panel Markov-switching GARCH models. The model incorporates series-specific hidden Markov chain processes that drive the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the parameter space, the article assumes soft parameter pooling through a hierarchical prior distribution and introduces cross sectional clustering through a Bayesian nonparametric prior distribution. An MCMC posterior approximation algorithm is developed and its efficiency is studied in simulations under alternative settings. An empirical application to financial returns data in the United States is offered with a portfolio performance exercise based on forecasts. A comparison shows that the Bayesian nonparametric panel Markov-switching GARCH model provides good forecasting performances and economic gains in optimal asset allocation.