Bayesian nonparametric analysis of crack growth rates in irradiated austenitic stainless steels in simulated BWR environments

Abstract

To investigate influential parameters for irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) growth behavior, we attempt to analyze statistically existing data on the crack growth rate (CGR) in irradiated austenitic stainless steels (SSs) in boiling water reactor (BWR) environments using the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method. From the probability distribution of CGR and some input parameters, such as yield stress of irradiated material (σYS-irr), stress intensity factor (K), electrochemical corrosion potential (ECP), and fast neutron fluence, the mean CGR is estimated and compared with the measured CGR. The analytical results show good reproducibility of the measured CGR. The results also indicate the possible neutron fluence effects on CGR in high CGR region (i.e., high neutron fluence condition) by radiation-induced segregation (RIS), localized deformation, and/or other mechanisms than radiation hardening.