Abstract

The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.

Highlights

  • To model hierarchical data when the distribution is not known is a big problem and has affected many researchers dealing with big data [1]

  • We introduced a model using the truncated nested Dirichlet process to identify groups of individuals who respond to the same treatment for a specified biological marker

  • Since the nested Dirichlet Process (nDP) is a non-parametric model, it has the capability of grouping all the observations from the mixture depending on the entire distribution, rather than selecting particular features of the distribution

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Summary

Introduction

To model hierarchical data when the distribution is not known is a big problem and has affected many researchers dealing with big data [1]. [4] studied the prognostic biomarkers and showed how they related to the clinical outcome using the Bayesian non-parametric procedures. [3] studied the prognostic biomarkers using Bayesian parametric procedures, and [5] studied the surrogate endpoints using the Bayesian methods These studies identified the need to study biomarkers and determine how they are related with the clinical outcome. The importance of modeling surrogate markers in this study is to be able to determine the relationship between the baseline biomarker and the samples taken after an individual has been given some treatment.

General Modeling Framework
Proposed Model
Formulation of the Hierarchical Model
Posterior Computation
Simulation Study
Findings
Conclusions
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