Abstract
Demand & Capacity Management solutions are key SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) research projects to adapt future airspace to the expected high air traffic growth in a Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) environment. These solutions rely on processes, methods and metrics regarding the complexity assessment of traffic flows. However, current complexity methodologies and metrics do not properly take into account the impact of trajectories’ uncertainty to the quality of complexity predictions of air traffic demand. This paper proposes the development of several Bayesian network (BN) models to identify the impacts of TBO uncertainties to the quality of the predictions of complexity of air traffic demand for two particular Demand Capacity Balance (DCB) solutions developed by SESAR 2020, i.e., Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric Air Traffic Control (FCA). In total, seven BN models are elicited covering each concept at different time horizons. The models allow evaluating the influence of the “complexity generators” in the “complexity metrics”. Moreover, when the required level for the uncertainty of complexity is set, the networks allow identifying by how much uncertainty of the input variables should improve.
Highlights
The foreseen high level of air traffic demand expected in Europe in the coming years can only be managed by a new and advance Air Traffic Management (ATM) System
This paper addresses the challenge of exploring how the uncertainties associated with the agreed Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) trajectory will influence the quality of the predictions of complexity of traffic demand and the effectiveness of Demand Capacity Balance (DCB) processes, Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric Air Traffic Control (FCA), regarding airspace management
The main objective of the COTTON project was to deliver innovative solutions to maximize the effectiveness of the Capacity Management processes taking full advantage of the trajectory information available in a TBO environment
Summary
The foreseen high level of air traffic demand expected in Europe in the coming years can only be managed by a new and advance Air Traffic Management (ATM) System This new and complex ATM system developed by the European Union and European industry is known as SESAR 2020 The most relevant SESAR 2020 solutions [1,2] dealing with future Capacity Management processes are Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) [3,4] and Flight Centric Air Traffic Control (FCA) [5]. Both of them are applied within the Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) environment. SESAR defines the 4D trajectory as a set of consecutive segments linking published waypoints and/or pseudo waypoints computed by air or ground tools
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