Abstract
Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build the aviation operation safety assessment model based on flight delay. The structure and parameters learning of the model have been researched. By using BN model, some airline in China has been selected to assess safety risk of civil aviation. The civil aviation safety risk of BN model has been assessed by GeNIe software. The research results show that flight delay, which increases the safety risk of civil aviation, can be seen as incremental safety risk. The effectiveness and correctness of the model have been tested and verified.
Highlights
The rapid increase of flight delays has already become a prominent problem in the development of civil aviation in China
Aviation safety risk evaluation based on flight delay using Bayesian networks (BN)
In order to simplify BN structure of civil aviation safety risk assessment, Markov blanket is selected in BN structure learning
Summary
The difference between aviation safety risk based on flight delays and general aviation risk assessment can be concluded. (ii) The Difference of Definition the Analysis Scope Because both the flight delays system and civil aviation safety system are big systems, it is difficult or insoluble for civil aviation safety assessment based on flight delays if all the elements of flight delay system and civil aviation system are considered. According to the characteristics of civil aviation, the paper presents an assessment model of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays.
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