Bayesian modeling of hematologic cancer and vehicular air pollution among young people in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Traffic-related air pollution is being associated with hematologic cancer in young individuals. This study performed a spatial analysis of the hematologic cancer incidence and mortality among younger people, using a Bayesian approach, to associate with traffic density in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Two databases were employed: incidence (2002–2011) and mortality (2002–2013). The relationships between the cases of hematologic cancer and the covariates – traffic density, the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), and population density – were evaluated using a Besag–York–Mollié ecological model with relative risks (RRs) estimates. Per 1-unit standard-deviation increase in traffic density, in the MHDI, and in population density, the RR for the incidence was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.97–1.14), 1.28 (95% CI: 1.16–1.42), and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94–1.08), respectively. For mortality, no covariates were considered risk factors. Our findings suggest significant association between living in regions with better socioeconomic conditions, where traffic density is usually higher, and risk of hematologic cancer in younger people.