Bayesian modeling and test planning for multiphase reliability assessment

Abstract

AbstractWe propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the reliability of a family of vehicles, based on the development of the joint light tactical vehicle (JLTV). The proposed model effectively combines information across three phases of testing and across common vehicle components. The analysis yields estimates of failure rates for specific failure modes and vehicles as well as an overall estimate of the failure rate for the family of vehicles. We are also able to obtain estimates of how well vehicle modifications between test phases improve failure rates. In addition to using all data to improve on current assessments of reliability and reliability growth, we illustrate how to leverage the information learned from the three phases to determine appropriate specifications for subsequent testing that will demonstrate if the reliability meets a given reliability threshold.