Abstract
The work proposed a reliability demonstration test (RDT) process, which can be employed to determine whether a finite population is accepted or rejected. Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches were compared in the proposed RDT process, as were lot and sequential sampling. One-shot devices, such as bullets, fire extinguishers, and grenades, were used as test targets, with their functioning state expressible as a binary model. A hypergeometric distribution was adopted as the likelihood function for a finite population consisting of binary items. It was demonstrated that a beta-binomial distribution was the conjugate prior of the hypergeometric likelihood function. According to the Bayesian approach, the posterior beta-binomial distribution is used to decide on the acceptance or rejection of the population in the RDT. The proposed method in this work could be used to select item providers in a supply chain, who guarantee a predetermined reliability target and confidence level. Numerical examples show that a Bayesian approach with sequential sampling has the advantage of only requiring a small sample size to determine the acceptance of a finite population.
Highlights
Most manufacturers consider sustainability when developing and marketing new products
The present work proposed an reliability demonstration test (RDT) process that is able to reflect the specific test environment, including the test target, sample size, inference method, and sampling method. Both lot and sequential sampling were considered in this RDT process because optimal sample sizes for RDTs cannot be guaranteed in test environments for new product development projects
This process was implemented when a defective item appeared during success-based testing, employing both non-Bayesian and Bayesian approaches based on reliability–confidence level (R-C) failure data for one-shot devices
Summary
Most manufacturers consider sustainability when developing and marketing new products. Failure count is based on the reliability–confidence level (R-C), which serves as a binary measure of success or failure [11,12] These two types of metrics have been used to assess continuously operating test targets, such as tanks or submarines, which are classified as either repairable or non-repairable, and with one-shot devices, such as rockets or missiles, which are all non-repairable. Binomial RDTs are mainly used when the test data is binary; they are useful for the destructive and time-consuming sample testing of one-shot devices, such as bullets, fire extinguishers, grenades, and missiles. Based on past experience in product development and test environments for these one-shot devices or components, designers aim to meet a pre-determined reliability target
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